I'll begin with a ar quote from Gregg Laskoski: "There's no questioning the fact that any attack in the Middle East would certainly send crude oil soaring. . . . So if you're seeing $3.50 a gallon in your local market and Israel attacked today, add $2.50 to that and now we're looking at $6 gasoline."
It's interesting, because in Miami, we're not at $3.50, we're higher. And the fact now is that prices are slated to go even higher, approaching or exceeding $4 a gallon by Memorial Day. And it's a shame because there is really nothing in the immediate future that can be done because our EVERYTHING is based on oil. OIL!!! Let's dive into this a bit. Nearly our entire economy is based on this finite fossil fuel. We have created a false economy based on dead things from millions of years ago. I digress. The infrastructure that is in place facilitates the use of oil. There is no getting around that. So for most Americans daily lives to continue as they do, $4 a gallon is just something that has to be done. Here are some FACTS (like the real kind). We use a lot of energy. How much? According to the United States Energy Information Agency (eia.gov) the US consumed 19.15 million barrels of oil in 2010 on refined petroleum products (22% of the world's consumption). That equates to nearly 7 billion barrels. And yes, that makes us the largest consumer on Earth. What's more interesting though is where we get that oil from. The majority (but only slightly) is domestically produced. We have to import 49% (eia.gov). of all the petroleum we use. Of the imported petroleum 49% of that comes from the Western Hemisphere, 42% comes from OPEC, which and 18% comes from the Persian Gulf. So there, you see clearly where we stand. AS IT STANDS NOW we need this stuff.
Now back to that quote from earlier. You might have seen a spike in the price of gas lately. Instability is driving the futures on oil higher and it's being reflected at the pumps (remember the hike when Libya's production was shut off, and they only produce 1% of the world's oil!). Israel is NUTS when it comes to defending itself, not a good or bad kind of nuts, just nuts, so don't put it past them to do what they see fit to protect their interests. It then makes so much sense to reduce the amount of oil we import from places that are regularly and increasingly becoming more unstable. And we can do that. We have huge amounts of oil in the form of tar sands found in Alberta, Canada. Here is where it gets tricky. There are several people who want to build a pipeline from these tar sands to the refineries on the Gulf Coast. This would certainly increase the imports from friendlier sources and chip away at that 18% that comes from the Persian Gulf. Canadian companies are more than willing to sell it to us, and we are more than willing to buy it from them (remember 7 billion barrels in 2010!). But is building the Keystone Pipeline the right thing to do. No, no, and a resounding no. It shouldn't (can't) be built. And now I will defend my stance.
What the argument for the Keystone XL PL is: It will create jobs!
“The Keystone energy project would create tens of thousands of American jobs.” — House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), Dec. 10, 2011
“At a time when many are without work, it is time that we come together in a bipartisan way to pass this legislation which will create tens of thousands of new jobs.” — Rep. Dan Boren (D-Okla.), Dec. 12, 2011
"My administration will stand behind the Keystone pipeline, creating more than 100,000 American jobs while reducing our dependence on overseas imports." — Former Utah governor Jon Huntsman (R), Nov. 1, 2011
Many politicians are standing behind this as a job creator. And objectively, there is no way a pipeline can be built through the heart of the country and not create jobs. the question is, though, how many.
TransCanada Corps., commissioned a study that suggested the pipeline would create 20,000 construction jobs and 118,000 spin off jobs from the project. If you break the 20K jobs created down further the study suggests that 13,00 of those would be direct construction and the other 7,000, suppliers and the like. Let's focus on the 13,000 for a second.
Here is what the CEO of TransCanada said about those jobs. "[T]he 13,000 figure was "one person, one year," meaning that if the construction jobs lasted two years, the number of people employed in each of the two years would be 6,500. This is close to the state departments numbers (Washington Post).
"The only independent study conducted on the tar sands pipeline job creation prospects was carried out by Cornell Univeristy--and they found only 500-1400 jobs would be generated by the project, and that most would be temporary. And yet, a slew of top politicians continues on trotting out the debunked, grossly over-exaggerated jobs numbers. Even TransCanada says it will, at best, create 5-6,000 jobs" (Treehugger).
Like I mentioned earlier the Keystone XL will create jobs, which the country needs. But here is my big question to you. IS the amount of jobs and the increase in Canadian oil worth it? I'm going to propose to you that NO, it is not worth it. If you will allow me, let me use an analogy.
Let's pretend that you were a drug addict, a heavy one. You are able to supply yourself with half of the product you need. But like I said, you're a BIG addict. So you have to look for other suppliers, however the only supplier you can find has got a few problems. He's got the "stuff" you need but he's prone to instability and his prices are constantly fluctuating. In addition to this, you KNOW he has a crazy side and could turn on you anytime and cut your supply off. You're not thrilled with this arrangement so you look for a "friendlier" supplier and find one who just happens to be a good friend of yours. So now you have reduced the amount of supply that you get from "bad" sources. The problem is this, you are still addicted to drugs!
No matter where we get the oil from, we're still on oil! We continue to prop up our economy from a fuel source that is finite and has a tremendous amount of externalities. Atmospheric CO2 is somewhere around 392ppm. Our agriculture system is based on fossil fuel derived fertilizer which contributes to an increasingly persistent dead zone in the Gulf. We are taking greater risks to find oil (Deepwater Horizon). Any instability in the world drives up costs. The United States Military has to devote significant resources to ensure a 30 mile wide straight at the entrance of the Persian Gulf remains open.
Yes we could build a pipeline or...........we can do something really meaningful, we could not build it. By not building it we could force innovation. If we build it, we just prolong our dependence on oil. By not building it, we could begin to create a new infrastructure, one of efficiency and one that actually works. We can be world leaders, creating a place and an economy where oil is a thing of the past. We need to look to the future because the way we are doing things is old and tired. Building a pipeline is old, do we as a country want to be old when China and Germany are investing BILLIONS in creating a new infrastructure. Do we want to pave over more land to accommodate vehicles that transport one person at a time? Do we want to risk another major oil spill? Do we want to grumble and complain about gas prices or do we want to change the way we do business?
It comes down to this, we have a choice to make. We can begin to make America modern or we can prolong this illusion of superiority based on a resource that will simply run out. And then what? Let's not be myopic. Let's be smart (and serious) about the direction we are heading. Let's not let a divided, at war with each other, congress and biased media (left and right, they're both bad) make decisions for us. This is a Democratic Republic, we make the choices. Ultimately we decide the fa'te of our country. Let's make the right choice.
I'll leave you with this. One of my favorite infrastructure thinks is Jaime Lerner, and this is what he has to say about innovation, "If you want to breed innovation, remove a 'zero' from your budget." If we remove the pipeline from our budget, we will begin to breed innovation.
Check out some fun Graphs below...........................All figures are from Media Matter for America
good information Brett...i think we should take the money we would spend on the pipeline, the money we bailed out the banks with, the money we spend on many other entitlement programs, and begin to give electric cars away. I think a trillion dollars was easily referenced here, so at $40k a pop that would provide 250,000 electric cars. That initiative alone would save 200 million gallons of gas a year.
ReplyDeleteI think SUP's are also great transportation that are safer than bikes on the road, provide a better workout, and will save another trillion in healthcare costs as it eliminates obesity and heart diease...we just have to move to cities with water transportation though...
or you could even develop electric bikes at $1k per bike- they already have them in production, but these would also have iPads on them so we can watch movies while we coast in electric mode...this would jump the freebies up to 1 billion bikes, and save 800 million gallons of gas.
ReplyDeletepaddleboards could be half of that cost, doubling the savings...